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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-29 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292032 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Visible satellite images indicate that a more well-defined circulation has begun to form east of the Outer Banks, and surface observations indicate that pressures are falling. The low is becoming extratropical, and there is no longer a possibility of it becoming a tropical cyclone. In addition, the associated tropical-storm-force winds that have been occurring to the southeast of the center are limited to marine areas, so this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. Maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt to the southeast of the center. Baroclinic influences are expected to cause the low to deepen as an extratropical cyclone during the next day or two, and it is forecast to produce sustained hurricane-force winds over the northwestern Atlantic by late Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours, and the cyclone is likely to be absorbed by another extratropical system over the north Atlantic by day 5. The low continues to accelerate toward the northeast with an initial motion of 050/21 kt, and it should move even faster toward the northeast or east-northeast across the north Atlantic through day 4, embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts incorporate guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. Strong winds on the northern and western side of a frontal boundary associated with the low are expected to affect portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. As a result, high wind warnings are in effect for coastal sections of northeastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the eastern shore of Virginia and Maryland through this evening. This is the last advisory issued by NHC, and additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 36.0N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 37.6N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1800Z 39.3N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0600Z 40.9N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1800Z 42.8N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 47.4N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 52.0N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Berg
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