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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-17 22:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 172032 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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