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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-07-11 10:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110845 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0900 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 88.2W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 88.2W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 88.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.7N 89.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 90.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.5N 91.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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