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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-07-10 16:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 101438 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 16(26) 6(32) 1(33) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 11(24) 1(25) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15(22) 7(29) 1(30) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 12(14) 28(42) 11(53) 11(64) 1(65) X(65) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 3(24) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 11(34) 3(37) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 36(54) 29(83) 1(84) 1(85) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 29(46) 2(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 22(45) 4(49) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 15(53) 2(55) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 35(48) 7(55) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 28(59) 5(64) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 3(25) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 33(36) 23(59) 4(63) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 51(69) 8(77) 1(78) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 10(42) 1(43) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 12(46) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 38(53) 9(62) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 36(64) 6(70) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 5(33) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 47(55) 22(77) 3(80) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 23(41) 4(45) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 38(51) 8(59) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 35(51) 7(58) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 36(58) 6(64) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 4(29) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 23(58) 2(60) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 3(25) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 5(41) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 2(33) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 14(44) 1(45) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 36(41) 25(66) 2(68) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 2(31) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 14(31) 2(33) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 1(20) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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