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Remnants of Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-07-08 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082035 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Beryl Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 Satellite imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data confirm the sharp open-trough pattern that was indicated by earlier aircraft reconnaissance wind data. Although Beryl has a well-defined, tight vortex noted in GOES-16 hi-res visible satellite imagery, that feature appears to be located above the surface. The latest radar data from Martinique also shows little if any rotation in the most recent convective burst that has developed just north of the aforementioned vortex. Given that the remnants of Beryl are now moving at a forward speed of at least 23 kt, it is highly unlikely that the very small circulation is closed at the surface. The intensity remains at 40 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance 56-kt flight-level wind data and the latest burst of convection that has developed in the same general location as those earlier winds. Now that Beryl is no longer considered to be a tropical cyclone, the reconnaissance mission for this evening has been canceled. On days 3-5, there appears to be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical wind shear conditions are forecast by most of the models to be light, with even the possibility of the development of a weak upper-level anticyclone across the Bahamas. The combination of the favorable upper-level wind flow pattern in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C should yield conditions conducive for the reformation of a tropical cyclone, although Beryl's low-level remnants are likely to be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola and could take some time to reform. The initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl should maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next 12 hours, passing over the Leeward Islands tonight and moving into the northeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. Although Beryl is no longer a tropical cyclone, advisories will continue to be issued on this system until the tropical storm watch for Dominica has been discontinued. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible for Dominica tonight. Elsewhere across the Leeward Islands, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible tonight and Monday, and these conditions are expected to spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.2N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 09/0600Z 16.2N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE 24H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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