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Remnants of MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-09-16 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160834 TCDEP3 REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS AREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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