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Remnants of Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-11-18 09:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 180831 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF SARA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Remnants of Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-18 09:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Nov 18 the center of Sara was located near 19.0, -91.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Remnants of Sara Public Advisory Number 19
2024-11-18 09:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180830 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Sara Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 ...SARA DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 91.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the remnants of Sara were located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, the remnants of Sara are expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Sara. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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