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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-05-27 22:39:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272039 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 After the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry mid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep convection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial wind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. The main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is whether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the center of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to regenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm SSTs and within a low shear environment. It is assumed that some convection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto's intensity, but that the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for significant strengthening. As a result, little change in intensity is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Alberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial motion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward to north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on Monday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low. After that time, the system should continue moving northward between the western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that approaches the central U.S. around mid-week. The dynamical models are in much better agreement on Alberto's track during the next 2 to 3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly. The new track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track during the first 24 to 36 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday. 2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 28.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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