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Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-05-21 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210231 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 There has not been much change in association with Andrea since the previous advisory a few hours ago. Satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection that is mainly confined to the north of the center, with less organized convection wrapping around to the southeastern quadrant. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of 35 kt, which is similar to what the aircraft found earlier this evening and in about the same location. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with the latest satellite intensity consensus from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Andrea is located a few hundred miles from a mid- to upper-level low, and its interaction with this feature is part of the reason why the cyclone is considered subtropical. This upper low and a ridge to the east is causing Andrea to move northward at about 10 kt. The models are in good agreement that Andrea should slow down and turn northeastward on Tuesday, and then eastward Tuesday night and Wednesday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the model guidance. Andrea could strengthen slightly overnight while it remains in a relatively moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after that time, a gradual weakening trend is predicted due to less favorable environmental conditions. All of the reliable models agree that Andrea will merge with, or be absorbed by, a cold front on Wednesday. This intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 29.5N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.1N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 31.3N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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