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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-07-14 22:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 007 WTNT42 KNHC 142052 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 While the overall coverage and intensity of convection associated with Beryl has decreased in the past few hours, the remaining convection has become better organized into a curved band. There are also indications that the center may be reforming to the north in response to this band. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on continuity from the previous advisory and a subtropical intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from TAFB. Beryl remains embedded in an upper-level trough that is well defined in GOES-16 airmass imagery, and thus is still a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone. The initial motion is 035/12, which is somewhat uncertain due to the possible reformation of the center. Otherwise, there is little change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Beryl is in relatively light southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the cyclone generally northeastward for the next two to three days. The guidance has shifted a little to the left of that of the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track is generally a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The intensity guidance is showing little additional development, and the new intensity forecast will reflect this in keeping the intensity at 35 kt for 24 h. However, the center of Beryl will be passing over the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, so it would not surprising if some intensification occurred. After that, the system should decay over cold water with little or no extratropical transition. The new forecast now calls for dissipation before the 72 h point in agreement with the dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 37.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 38.8N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 40.8N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 43.0N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 44.9N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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