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Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-11-02 21:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022032 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 Patty has not changed much during the past several hours. The storm has been maintaining a small core, though the cloud tops are not as cold as they were earlier today. The system is still co-located with an upper-level low and dry and stable air continues to wrap around the core region. These mixed tropical and extratropical characteristics continue to support Patty's subtropical designation. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but this is above the latest satellite estimates. Patty is located about 60 n mi south of the westernmost Azores, and it will be passing near the central and eastern Azores later tonight and Sunday. Weakening should begin soon as the parent upper-level low weakens, leaving the storm in more stable conditions and stronger vertical wind shear. The models suggest that the low could lose its core and deep convection by late Sunday, which should cause it to become a post-tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours. Additional weakening is expected after that, and the storm will likely dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The subtropical storm is accelerating southeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is 125/16 kt. An eastward motion is expected to begin overnight, taking Patty near or just south of the Azores through Sunday. An east-northeastward motion is expected after that toward western Europe. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through Sunday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 38.0N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 37.5N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 37.3N 23.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 37.8N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0600Z 40.5N 11.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 41.7N 9.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-11-02 21:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 022032 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 2100 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 14 59(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PONTA DELGADA 50 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Subtropical Storm Patty (AT2/AL172024)
2024-11-02 21:31:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PATTY NEAR THE WESTERN AZORES... . ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sat Nov 2 the center of Patty was located near 38.0, -30.1 with movement SE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics