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Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-11-03 21:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032032 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, thunderstorms have reformed near the center of Patty. Therefore, Patty will hold its subtropical storm designation for now. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data. However, strong vertical wind shear, dry mid-latitude air, and cool sea surface temperatures should weaken Patty during the next couple of days. No changes have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast. The storm is moving eastward at 15 kt and is forecast to move eastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Patty is still expected to open into a trough near or over western Europe, and only minor adjustments have been made to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 37.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 37.7N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1800Z 38.9N 14.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 41.2N 8.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Patty (AT2/AL172024)
2024-11-03 21:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.3, -22.3 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 7
2024-11-03 21:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 032031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 22.3W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 22.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by early Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics