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Tropical Depression AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-05-29 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014 The satellite presentation of Amanda has been deteriorating during the last several hours. The remaining deep convection is confined to a band that is about 150 n mi from the center, and even that feature lacks curvature. Dvorak classifications continue to decrease, and on that basis, Amanda is downgraded to a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Continued weakening is forecast, and Amanda will likely become a remnant low in about a day or sooner. Dissipation is predicted to occur in about 4 days, following the GFS and ECMWF models. The low-level center of Amanda had been difficult to find overnight, but recent microwave and visible images indicate that it is located to the south of the previous estimate. In addition, the center itself has become increasingly elongated and diffuse. The depression, or its remnant low, is expected to move eastward or east-northeastward at a decreasing pace for the next 24 to 36 hours. Beyond that time, whatever is left of Amanda should turn southwestward when it is steered by a building low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward mainly to account for the adjusted initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.5N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0000Z 16.6N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 16.7N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z 16.1N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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