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Tropical Depression Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-06-29 10:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Alvin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Alvin has become a swirl of low and mid-level clouds as strong shear and cooler waters have caused a rapid demise of the tropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and is based on the latest Dvorak T-numbers. The hostile environmental conditions should continue to cause the cyclone to weaken today, and the system should degenerate into a remnant low later this morning. As expected, Alvin has slowed down and turned west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 290/7 kt. Now that Alvin has become a vertically shallow system, a slow westward to west- northwestward motion within the low-level trade wind flow is forecast until dissipation occurs. The NHC forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.3N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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