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Tropical Depression BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-07-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100835 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Blas has been void of organized deep convection since about 00Z, and convection is unlikely to return given that the cyclone is moving over SSTs less than 24C. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Blas should weaken to a remnant low later today and the cyclone is expected to open up into a trough after 48 hours. Microwave fixes indicate that Blas is located a bit south of previous estimates and the latest geostationary fixes, and the initial motion estimate is 280/10. The shallow cyclone is expected to gradually turn west-southwestward under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one given the initial position and a southward trend in the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 21.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/0600Z 21.0N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 20.5N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 20.0N 143.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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