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Tropical Depression Bud Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-06-15 16:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151437 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Bud Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Bud's satellite presentation consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with the limited deep convection displaced in a band well to the northwest of the center. Assuming gradual weakening since the ASCAT passes overnight, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, with those winds likely found over the Gulf of California to the east of the center. The shear is expected to remain strong through landfall, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by 12 hours and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora by early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 360/10, and Bud should continue moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the cyclone's east and an approaching longwave trough to its west. Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the southwest U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan/McElroy
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