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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-06-18 04:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Visible satellite imagery indicates that Carlotta has maintained a small but robust low-level circulation, with strong convection bursting over and south of the well-defined center. Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the intensity is being maintained at 25 kt and Carlotta is still classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 295/04 kt. The recent development of deep convection has likely amplified the vertical circulation, resulting in the forward motion being slightly retarded by the north-northwesterly upper-level winds. However, a stout ridge to the north of the small cyclone should keep the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction just offshore the coast of Mexico for the next day or so. Pulsing convection with tops to near -80C has been occurring since the previous advisory. However, vertical wind shear of around 15 kt along with drier mid-level air coming in off of mainland Mexico are expected to steadily weaken the system, resulting in degeneration into a remnant low on Monday. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Consult products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.2N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.4N 102.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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