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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-06-18 16:40:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181440 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 Locating Carlotta's center this morning in conventional satellite imagery has been difficult. An earlier 0806 UTC GMI polar orbital microwave pass, however, was helpful in confirming that the system has in fact persisted as a small, relatively symmetric tropical cyclone. A blend of subjective and objective T-numbers supports 25 kt for this advisory. With the assistance of the aforementioned microwave image, the initial motion is estimated to be 310/4 kt, within the weak low- to mid-level flow generated by high pressure to the north. Landfall still appears to be unlikely due to the expected motion parallel to the coastline, but only a slight northward deviation could bring the center of the small cyclone onshore. In any event, dissipation should occur just offshore by Tuesday morning, if not sooner. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 103.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.1N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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