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Tropical Depression Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-08 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080231 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Cosme Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 All of the central convection associated with Cosme dissipated about 5 hours ago, around 2200 UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low. Since the core convection has now dissipated, it is assumed that the cyclone's winds have decreased since the last ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 30-35 kt winds. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Cosme a tropical depression. This intensity estimate is also in fair agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and automated Dvorak values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Cosme is currently over cool 24 degree C waters, and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next couple of days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a dry and stable air mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low overnight or early Monday and dissipate in two or three days. The tropical depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt. Cosme is expected to slow down and gradually turn toward the left, within the low-level flow, until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is just a tad north of the previous advisory track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.8N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0000Z 20.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1200Z 20.8N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0000Z 21.3N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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