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Tropical Depression Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-08 10:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080834 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Cosme Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019 Cosme continues to gradually weaken over 23 to 24 degree C waters and in a dry and stable atmospheric environment with about 10 to 15 kt of westerly shear. The depression now consists of scattered mid- to high- level debris clouds over a low-level swirl, with a small area of convection located nearly 200 n mi northeast the system's center. A scatterometer pass at 0450 UTC showed peak winds of 25 kt associated with Cosme's circulation. This intensity agrees with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and ADT and will be the depression's initial intensity for this advisory. The unfavorable environmental conditions for Cosme will not improve as the depression continues to move over cooler waters today. This should prevent any significant amounts of deep convection from developing near the system's center, and Cosme is expected to become a remnant low at some point later on today. The initial motion of Cosme is northwest at 8 kt. This general motion will continue through today with a slowing in forward speed. Thereafter, the remnant low will drift northwestward to west-northwestward in the low-level flow until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.8N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 20.4N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1800Z 21.5N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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