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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-06-05 16:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051449 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Although the center of circulation is still over land, the system is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images. A large convective band has become better defined over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, central convective features are still lacking. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt based on surface synoptic observations. Re-intensification should begin later today, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cristobal this evening as the center moves back over water. Additional intensification is anticipated through early Sunday, however this should be limited due to dry mid-level air and some shear. The official intensity forecast is about the same as in previous advisories and is near or above the latest intensity model consensus. The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the north, or about 360/10 kt. For the next couple of days Cristobal should move mainly northward through a weakness between subtropical anticyclones. A gradual bend toward the north-northwest is likely after the center reaches the northern Gulf coast due to some building of a ridge to the northeast. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed to the east of the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Florida Big Bend, in portions of southeastern Louisiana, and along the Mississippi coast within the next 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for these areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm force winds beginning Sunday morning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread onto portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding and rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.0N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1200Z 23.8N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 27.3N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 29.1N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON COAST 72H 08/1200Z 31.2N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1200Z 36.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 43.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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