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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-06-08 16:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081442 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Cristobal continues to move further inland. Surface observations along with radar and satellite images indicate that the center is located over northeastern Louisiana. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 995 mb, and the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, based on several observations of 25-30 kt along and offshore of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The depression is still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms generally to the north and east of the center. The depression is moving faster to the northwest than before, and the latest initial motion estimate is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the north by tonight and then accelerate north-northeastward late Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a trough to its west. This track should take Cristobal, and its extratropical remnants, across the Midwest and over central and eastern Canada during the next few days. Some weakening is expected during the next day or so as Cristobal continues to track inland. However, slight re-intensification as an extratropical cyclone is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as Cristobal becomes involved with a mid-latitude system over the Upper Mississippi Valley. The combination of Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will likely cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions around the middle of the week. This is the last NHC advisory on Cristobal. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed isolated significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 32.5N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 34.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 38.0N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 42.4N 90.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 47.4N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 51.1N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 52.2N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 51.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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