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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 23
2013-07-05 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DALILA STUBBORNLY PERSISTS IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH IN A LIMITED AREA...DESPITE THE 12-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MINIMAL 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A PERFECTLY PLACED ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0424Z INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT PEAK WINDS FOR THE SYSTEM...MATCHING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. DALILA MAY HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS OR SO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK...DRY STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO CEASE FOR GOOD. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS A REMNANT LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DALILA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA...WHICH IS WEST AT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED...PRIMARILY BY A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS NORTH OF DALILA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 17.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 17.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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