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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2013-07-05 16:48:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051448 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.8/41 KT... T2.5/35 KT...AND T1.0/25 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...TAFB...AND SAB... RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH DALILA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION SINCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD IS JUST NOW ENDING AND THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE TEMPORARY. HOWEVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS EXISTING WEST OF THE CENTER...THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM THE USUAL 40 KT TO 45 KT IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT. REGARDLESS OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DALILA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICK...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI TO THE EAST. AS ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO DALILA...ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AND INDUCE EVEN GREATER SHEAR...WHICH WILL ACT TO HASTEN THE DEMISE OF DALILA WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 265/03 KT. AS DALILA UNDERGOES SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH ERICK TO ITS EAST AND ENCOUNTERS A STRENGTHENING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS WEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME AND ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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