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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2013-07-05 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 AFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 1654Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 26-KT WIND VECTORS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER WHEN AT LEAST SOME MODEST CONVECTION WAS STILL PRESENT. GIVEN THE WORSENING APPEARANCE IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE FACT THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...THE GENERAL TREND CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ERICK LOCATED TO THE EAST. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03 KT. NOW THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...DALILA SHOULD BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK. AS ERICK DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE...DALILA COULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DALILA WILL NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 17.1N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 16.9N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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