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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 26
2013-07-06 04:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060240 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DALILA NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AS SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATED SINCE ABOUT 18Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...LONG-LASTING DEEP CONVECTION IN DALILA IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE WEAK. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 17.1N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 17.1N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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