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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 27
2013-07-06 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 STUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT LOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE LONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED. EITHER A CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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