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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2013-07-06 16:54:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061454 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 FINALLY...THE ROLES HAVE BEEN REVERSED...DALILA GETS SHEARED. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING WITH THE CYCLONE...AND WHAT CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 0728 UTC INDICATED UNFLAGGED WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION NEAR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM NOW HURRICANE ERICK LOCATED ABOUT 500 NMI TO THE EAST OF DALILA...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DALILA BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY. DALILA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT DALILA HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL BE THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DALILA AND ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION TO MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERICK AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 17.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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