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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 30
2013-07-07 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070251 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS SQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE DESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION REFORMS SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT. DALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST- SOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY LEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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