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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-07-03 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032032 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 Douglas's low-level center is located just to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a bit since this morning, and a blend of the Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support downgrading Douglas to a 30-kt depression. Continued weakening is forecast while the depression moves over increasingly cooler water and into a drier, more stable environment. Douglas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours, but it could become one earlier if the deep convection diminishes soon. Dissipation is still expected by day 5. Douglas continues to creep northwestward with an initial motion of 315/2 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause the remnant low to turn west-northwestward and accelerate by days 3 and 4. The model guidance is in good agreement, and no significant changes were required to the official NHC track forecast in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.6N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 23.3N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 24.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 25.2N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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