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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-07-04 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040233 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 The center of Douglas is partially exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are about the same as earlier, so 30 kt is kept as the initial wind speed. Douglas should gradually lose strength over the next few days while it moves over cold water within a more stable environment. The latest NHC intensity prediction is about the same as the previous one. Douglas will likely become a remnant low on Friday while it traverses sub-24C waters. The low should dissipate in about 4 days according to the global model guidance. The depression is moving a little faster toward the northwest at about 4 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build somewhat over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause Douglas or its remnants to speed up a little bit. Model guidance is virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.9N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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