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Tropical Depression Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-26 10:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260833 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 The last bit of convection occurred around 0600 UTC, consisting of cloud tops to -30C to -35C. This allowed TAFB to provide a Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of 30 kt. This was enough to still classify Daniel as a tropical depression. Since that time, however, the convection has eroded significantly and cloud tops have warmed to only around -15C. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as the small cyclone moves over SSTs less than 24C and also ingests more stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. Degeneration into a remnant low pressure is expected later this morning, with dissipation is forecast by 48 hours. The next advisory could easily be the last forecast required for this system. The shallow cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 7-8 kt. Now that Daniel has become embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, the cyclone and its remnants should move westward at around 10 kt until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The official foreast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the consensus track models HCCA and TCVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 20.0N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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