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Tropical Depression Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-06-24 10:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240832 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Dolly Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 Deep convection associated with Dolly has become limited and it is confined to an area well to the east of the exposed center. This degraded structure is because the cyclone is now over very cool 22 degree C waters. ASCAT data from several hours ago indicated that maximum winds have fallen below tropical storm force, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on that data and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. This makes Dolly a tropical depression, and the system is well on its way to becoming a remnant low. Since the depression is headed for even cooler waters, continued weakening is expected and Dolly will likely become a remnant low later today. Dissipation is now expected to occur by 36 hours, but the global models suggest that it could occur even sooner than that. The tropical depression is moving northeastward at 10 kt. A faster northeastward motion on the north side of a subtropical ridge is expected until the system dissipates on Thursday. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 41.7N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 43.1N 57.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0600Z 45.1N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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