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Tropical Depression Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-20 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200239 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Dolores Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Tropical Depression Dolores continues to rapidly weaken. It is getting very difficult to locate a low-level center at this time, if one still exists over the mountainous terrain. Given the length of time already spent over this terrain, the estimated initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt for this advisory. Dolores is moving north at 18 kt between a ridge to its east and a mid-level low to its west. This motion is expected to continue through tonight, keeping Dolores well inland over western Mexico. This track over the rugged terrain should cause Dolores to finally dissipate late tonight or on Sunday morning. Although Dolores may dissipate soon, the abundant moisture associated with the system is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico for the remainder of the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through early tonight. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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