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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-03 16:56:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031456 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...THE LOW CAN BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGRES AT 8 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 13.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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