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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-03 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN. THE GFS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MOVING WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 12.7N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 12.5N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 12.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 13.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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