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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-07-26 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261432 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 The tropical depression has not changed much during the past several hours. Although the system is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, it is mainly confined to the north side of the cyclone and is not wrapping around the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates. The environment is currently favorable for the depression to strengthen, but it is not expected to remain that way for very long. In about 2 days, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and into an atmosphere of stronger shear and dry air. The models show less strengthening this cycle, and the official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one based on this guidance. The system is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A slightly faster west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone remains embedded in the fast flow on the southwest side of a strong mid-level ridge over the southern United States. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected beyond a few days when the weakening cyclone becomes steered by the lighter low-level flow. The models are tightly clustered, and the official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 14.4N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 15.7N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 114.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 21.6N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 22.0N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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