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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-07-22 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220249 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Visible satellite imagery and a 2309 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass showed that the depression's center of circulation was located near the northeastern edge of the cloud mass, indicative that some northeasterly shear is impinging on the cloud pattern. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed during the past 6 hours, and the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Light to moderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the depression traverses warm water. Gradual strengthening seems reasonable and this forecast trend is supported by most of the statistical-dynamical guidance. Beyond day 3, however, the depression is expected to encounter decreasing SSTs of below 25C, and move into a more stable thermodynamic environment which should influence slow weakening through the remainder of the period. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model guidance. Conventional satellite position fixes and a couple of microwave overpasses yield an initial motion estimate of 295/11 kt, south of a strong subtropical ridge along 29N originating from Texas/northern Mexico. This ridge is expected to steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the 96 hour period. Afterward, the global and regional model guidance still shows increasing spread with time. The ECMWF is basically the outlier this evening, showing a much more north-northwestward turn into a break in the ridge created by a combination of a digging upper-level low, and Tropical Storm Frank to the northeast of the depression. All the other guidance agree more with a gradual turn toward the northwest through day 5. The official forecast splits these two solutions, but is hedged a bit toward the model cluster reflecting a less poleward turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 11.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 12.3N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.8N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.4N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.0N 125.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 17.4N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.3N 129.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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