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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-08-04 04:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040239 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. LIGHT-TO-MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM GIL...APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE LOPSIDED ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 30 AND 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 30 KT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY INDUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. PERHAPS REFLECTING THIS SHEAR FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 48-72H WHILE THE WATERS REMAIN WARM. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT INEXPLICABLE STRUGGLES OF GIL IN THIS SAME AREA...I AM NOT ABOUT TO BITE OFF ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE YET...BUT WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BEYOND 48H...AND ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE AFTER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...WHICH CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FAN OUT NOTICEABLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 12.7N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 12.5N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 12.6N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 13.1N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 14.5N 133.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 16.2N 137.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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