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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-11-01 09:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010836 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 30 KT. THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED TO THE EAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS ONLY MAKING THE CYCLONE A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE BEGUN WEAKENING BY THAT TIME. BASED ON A BLEND OF FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.4N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.3N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.8N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.2N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 24.5N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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