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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-11-01 15:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011445 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. EVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...THE CENTER IS HARD TO FIND...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 30 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS SOME CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER DURING THAT TIME...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS. GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE...THE WEAKER IDEA SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24H...AND IS BASICALLY THE SAME THEREAFTER...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 48H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MAKING A LEFTWARD TURN...AND IS NOW MOVING ROUGHLY 345/6. RIDGING SHOULD TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A LARGE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48H TO BETTER FIT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.9N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.4N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.8N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.6N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 23.0N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 27.0N 105.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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