je.st
news
Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-11-02 09:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020837 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER AND A CIRCULATION THAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE IS STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE WESTERN AND STRONGER SEMICIRCLE...AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN BELOW STORM STRENGTH...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0441Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED PERHAPS ABOUT 50 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE MORE SOUTHERN MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WHICH YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO WILL NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT A LARGE APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM AFTER THAT. THE GUIDANCE IS FASTER ON THIS CYCLE...THE GFS PARTICULARLY SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE NEW ECMWF. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND... POSSIBLY...THE SPRAWLING AND RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN BRIEFLY AS IT SWITCHES FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN 24-36 HOURS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...ONLY THE HWRF MAKES THE SYSTEM A STORM AND THEN ONLY BARELY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING ON THE APPROACH TO BAJA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE CENTER LOSING DEFINITION BEFORE LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY INCLUDES A 72-HR FORECAST POINT TO ALLOW THE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EXIST IN THREE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.2N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.8N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.6N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 23.1N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 27.5N 105.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics