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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-11-02 21:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022038 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. MICROWAVE AND OTHER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BE TEMPORARY HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN IT TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BY 36H...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING WHILE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GUIDANCE SUITE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MEXICO GIVEN THE SMALL... BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE...CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.7N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.3N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.9N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 25.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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