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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-11-03 03:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030234 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...AND THE TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER HAD NOT BECOME ANY BETTER DEFINED...WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS NOTED WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SHEAR DECREASES IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRENGTHENING...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER. THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A BLEND OF THE LATEST FIXES AND CONTINUITY PROVIDES AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC TRACK IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.3N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.4N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.6N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 24.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 26.5N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Category:Transportation and Logistics