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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-31 04:58:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310258 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013 A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WHILE THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING....IT WILL REACH COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR TWO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED AT ALL ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HIGHEST RELIABLE MODEL SUGGESTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF ONLY 46 KT. GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM. BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6. THE LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION NORTHWARD IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR TURN BACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ENHANCED ITCZ REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF MEXICO. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG RANGE...THE NHC FORECAST WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE EQUATORWARD SOLUTIONS. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION WITHIN 120 HR...AND SO DOES THE NHC PREDICTION BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 18.3N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 19.1N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 21.3N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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