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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-07 10:55:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070854 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 The low pressure area near the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better defined overnight, and there is sufficient convective organization to classify the system as a tropical depression. Although the convection near the center has recently decreased, there are several curved bands around the outer portion of the circulation. Recent land-based observations indicate that brisk southeasterly winds are occurring along the immediate coast of Mexico, and ship H9LA reported a minimum pressure of 1004.9 mb and 31 kt southerly winds early in the evening. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is estimated to be 30 kt. The forecast track of the depression takes it over very warm water during the next couple of days, but moderate easterly shear and interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico should mean only slight strengthening today. Additional modest intensification is expected tonight and Monday, before the system nears the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 48 hours. After that time, interaction with land and a more stable airmass should cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate near or over the central Baja California peninsula in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance, which is a little above the dynamical models. Since the tropical cyclone is still in its formative stage, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 290/9 kt. The depression is forecast to turn northwesterly by late Sunday as it moves around the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. In 3 to 4 days, a deepening mid-level trough off the west coast of the United States should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwestward or northward. The track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC forecast lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 18.0N 104.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 19.0N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.3N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 21.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.4N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.6N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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