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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-31 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310833 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 A 0407 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND A 0445Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY A DAY OR SO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPART MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE DURING THAT TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING THE DEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD BUT STILL REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME. THEN AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY DAY 4 AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 18.8N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 19.5N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 21.3N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 21.3N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 20.9N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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