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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-13 10:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130832 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 Deep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the west of the center of the depression during the last several hours. The banding features, however, have become a little less defined recently. ASCAT passes at 0420 and 0506 UTC showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, and Dvorak intensity estimates also support an intensity of that value. Therefore, the initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. This ridge is expected to build over the Pacific Ocean, which should steer the tropical cyclone westward away from Mexico during the next several days. The model guidance has shifted a little to the north and is faster this cycle, and the official track forecast has been adjusted to account for these changes. The ECMWF is now in better agreement with the remainder of the guidance as the latest run shows less interaction with a developing disturbance to the east of the cyclone. Moderate northeasterly shear is currently affecting the system, which is likely the reason why the convection is currently displaced to the west of the center. The shear is expected to lessen during the next day or so, and the environmental winds are anticipated to remain conducive for development through the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, warm water and a relatively moist air mass should also support strengthening. The SHIPS and LGEM models respond to the favorable environment and show a steady strengthening trend. Conversely, the HWRF and GFDL models predict little or no strengthening of the system. Given the aforementioned environmental conditions, the official intensity forecast remains higher than the consensus in favor of the SHIPS and LGEM solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 17.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.7N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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