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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-08-31 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311454 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS AMBIGUOUS ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...A 0938Z NOAA-19 AMSU AND A 1217Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES WERE HELPFUL IN MORE ACCURATELY LOCATING ITS CENTER. THESE INDICATE A MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF 325/6... PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS...IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB...SAB...AND ADT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE 1200Z ESTIMATES AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SHORTLY. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED...AS COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN NOT BRINGING THE CYCLONE HIGHER THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 19.8N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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