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Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-07-09 10:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090832 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PRACTICALLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS DISSIPATED. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS AND WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING EVEN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. ERICK SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BE DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST GUESS IS THAT IT REMAINS ON COURSE WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 310/9. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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